Since the Arrival of Pau Gasol in February, the Lakers have been the best team in the NBA. That is fact. Their offense has been so potent that any defensive holes were never truly exposed. Denver’s potent offense was nullified by smart defense and that team’s borderline insanity. The Jazz put up tough competition in the second round, but escaped with one home win and lost another in Salt Lake. They were the best home team during the regular season. In the Western Conference finals, a determined, tested, talented, and well-coached San Antonio team fell in five games (two were close). In three series, the Lakers are 12-3. That’s against the not-quite (they didn’t play the Hornets) best competition the best conference has to offer. Very impressive.

Boston’s woes are well documented. Their defense remains tough as nails and their home record is near perfect (LA’s is perfect). But the two seven game series against mediocre competition are a stain in spite of their somehow improved play against Detroit. Boston’s strengths were highlighted against Detroit and it’s not as if the Lakers’ defense is in any way better than Detroit’s. In fact, I predicted Detroit to have the advantage against Boston because three to four Pistons could switch easily on screens. LA doesn’t have
this match-up advantage. Recent performance is important, however, and here LA is favored. Boston is a meager 12-8 in the playoffs, with two road wins to seven losses. But of course, the Celts have home court.

So, how to call the Finals? First of all, this series will be great. There should be at least two very close games and four good ones. LA’s unstoppable offense mixed up with Boston’s ridiculous defense is recipe for close games. That being said, this series is very difficult to call. I’ll take the Lakers in six. Here’s why:

1) LA’s bench. They’ve been lauded all year and rightfully so. The absolute deadly shooting of Farmar and Vujacic makes up for the Lakers’ lack of size in the substitutes. Additionally, Walton doesn’t really hurt a team and provides valuable rest for Odom and Bryant. Let’s not forget, Ronny Turiaf can’t play against Garnett, but he certainly can do well against powe/davis/brown.

2) Coaching. Phil Jackson is a much better coach than Doc Rivers. It’s simply much more likely that Phil will find a way to exploit matchups and get into the head of the opponent. I don’t really think I need to justify myself any further.

3) The best player in the league is on the Lakers. I know this is a cop out, but Kobe is just a slayer. Outside (against the Spurs), inside (against the Jazz), doesn’t matter. He’ll shred you. He proved against the Spurs he doesn’t need to get to the line to score thirty. We’ll see how Boston plays the foul factor with their great interior defense.

4) The Lakers have a better half court offense. I give a slight edge to this over the Celts superior matchups on the frontline. Though I would be remiss to say that a reversal of this flimsy fourth factor is impossible.

I’ll keep it simple with these four. They should decide it, but we’ll see. My qualifiers are these: the Celtics will win if they dominate (not just outplay) the Lakers on the boards and if they shoot the three well (above 36%, say). I’ve harped on LA’s three point defense all year and it’s probably the worst part of their game. With Pierce, Allen, and Posey out there, LA needs to stick with their men off screens and let Garnett try to beat them. I see Rondo’s lack of outside shooting as a huge advantage to the Lakers.